НЕЛІНІЙНИЙ БАНКІВСЬКИЙ РИЗИКОВИЙ АПЕТИТ В УМОВАХ НЕВИЗНАЧЕНОСТІ ЕКОНОМІЧНОЇ ПОЛІТИКИ: РОЛЬ ЯКОСТІ РЕГУЛЯТОРНОГО ЗАБЕЗПЕЧЕННЯ ТА СТРАХУВАННЯ ДЕПОЗИТІВ
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Надіслано: 31-10-2025
Опубліковано: 28-02-2026
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Анотація
Економічна політика зростає у світі, що має наслідки для стабільності фінансового сектора. У цій роботі автори досліджують його вплив на ризикову поведінку банків. Дослідження вивчає функціональну форму реакцій банків на економічну невизначеність і як якість регулювання та соціальні мережі змінюють поведінку банків за періодів високої невизначеності.
Використано дані з 1999 по 2023 рік 796 банків у 21 країні із застосуванням квадратичної двоступеневої системи оцінки GMM для оцінки впливу економічної політики на прийняття ризиків банками. За допомогою U-тесту автори підтверджують нелінійний зв'язок і визначають його порогову точку. Нарешті, автори демонструють узгодженість оцінок, контролюючи кілька великих кризових періодів протягом вибіркового періоду.
Виявлено, що невизначеність економічної політики загалом підвищує ризик для банків. Однак після певного рівня подальше зростання невизначеності економічної політики може призвести до зменшення прибутку та підвищеного уникнення ризику, що призведе до зменшення ризикової поведінки. Вища якість регулювання пом'якшує цей ефект; однак зниження ризику менш помітне, коли економічна невизначеність зростає. Соціальні мережі пом'якшують взаємозв'язок, упливаючи на чутливість банків до ризику. Крім того, видно міжкраїнну гетерогенність у розмірі економічної політики, невизначеності та ризику. Нарешті, зрозуміло, що нелінійні ефекти є стійкими після контролю великих подій, таких як глобальна фінансова криза, криза єврозони, COVID-19 і війна в Україні.
Автори надають докази нелінійності на перетині економічної невизначеності, регуляторних рамок, страхових сітків і поведінки банків, що беруть на себе ризик. Результати підкреслюють важливість надійної регуляторної якості й соціальних мереж для пом'якшення ризикової поведінки банків під час економічної невизначеності.
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